quarta-feira, 19 de novembro de 2008

Conseguirá o Brasil Evitar Sua Argentinização?

Para Sebastian Edwards, o mundo conseguiu evitar a "argentinização" ao longo da crise financeira. A Argentina, ao contrário, continua "argentinizando". Conseguirá o Brasil escapar desta maldição?

"But the most important question is what will happen in Brazil, Latin America’s giant. Over the past few years, analysts and investors around the world began to see Brazil as an economic power in the making. There was mention of a miracle, and many argued that Brazil would grow spectacularly like China and India, and no longer be the eternal country of “the future.” Unfortunately, everything suggests that this was an illusion based on wishful thinking.

Brazil’s boom of the past few years stood on an incredibly weak foundation. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva did indeed decide to avoid the rampant populism of Hugo Chávez of Venezuela, and successfully tackled inflation. But it takes more than that to become a great economic power.

What Lula did was simply to decide that Brazil would be a “normal” country. But more than controlled inflation is needed to create a robust economy with a high and sustainable growth rate. Agility, dynamism, productivity, and economic policies that promote efficiency and enterprise are required.

As many studies have shown, Brazil has not been able – or has not wanted – to adopt the modernizing reforms needed to promote a productivity boom. Brazil is still an enormously bureaucratic country, with an educational system in crisis, very high taxes, mediocre infrastructure, impediments to the creation of businesses, and a high level of corruption.

It is sad but true: in recent years Brazil did not opt for modernization and efficiency and will have to pay the consequences during the difficult years ahead".

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