sexta-feira, 5 de fevereiro de 2010

A Hipótese de Mercados Eficientes

Tudo o que você queria saber sobre a hipótese de mercados eficientes mas tinha medo de perguntar. A resenha de Erik Falkenstein conclui:

"'Rejecting efficient markets’ is not a necessary or even helpful pillar to understanding current anomalies because it is difficult to see any comparable replacement that would prevent the field from turning into chaos, where every outcome is the result of some ad hoc noise trader assumption. The efficient markets paradigm is a triumph of economics because it is so counterintuitive to the layman, so restrictive in what it allows, and so pervasive in its application. A healthy respect for the rationality of markets is a hugely advantageous mindset for the researcher and practitioner. This should be the base from which one identifies anomalies, and then explains them with specific frictions or cognitive biases."

2 comentários:

Roberto Ushisima disse...

Esse artigo do Raymond Ball também é uma boa leitura.

Um outro trecho interessante dessa resenha. "Almost everyone outside this literature is sympathetic to behavioral theories over the rational markets assumption"

Ronald Hillbrecht disse...

Prezado Roberto,

Grato pela citação. O artigo do Ray Ball merece a devida atenção.