A Falta Que Boa Liderança Faz

Do Jeffrey Sachs, no Financial Times:

"The last missing piece for any recovery, however, is clarity of purpose from the political class. In Europe, a coherent response led by the European Union has been sidelined to policymaking by national governments – the pact between France and Germany being only the latest example. For months, Europe’s fate has been decided by German state elections and small Finnish parties. The European Central Bank has been so divided that it too has neglected core functions of stabilising panicked markets. There is no way the euro can survive if European-wide institutions continue to be so weak, slow and divided.

The US has similarly devolved into a mélange of sector, class, and regional interests. President Barack Obama is the incredibly shrinking leader, waiting to see whether Congressional power barons will call. More generally, the US cannot prosper while its politicians go hat in hand to the vested interests that finance their nonstop campaigning.
The recent swoon in financial markets and the stalled recovery in the US and Europe reflect these fundamental shortcomings. There is no growth strategy, only the hope that scared and debt-burdened consumers will return to buying houses they don’t need and can’t afford. Sadly, these global economic currents will continue to claim jobs and drain capital until there is a revival of bold, concerted leadership. In the meantime, the markets will gyrate in pangs of uncertainty."

Política Fiscal Americana: Uma Projeção Assustadora

HT: John Taylor

Os Dez Mandamentos do Ajuste Fiscal

De Olivier Blanchard e Carlo Cotarelli. São eles:

Commandment I: You shall have a credible medium-term fiscal plan with a visible anchor (in terms of either an average pace of adjustment, or of a fiscal target to be achieved within four–five years).

Commandment II: You shall not front-load your fiscal adjustment, unless financing needs require it.

Commandment III: You shall target a long-term decline in the public debt-to-GDP ratio, not just its stabilization at post-crisis levels.

Commandment IV: You shall focus on fiscal consolidation tools that are conducive to strong potential growth.

Commandment V: You shall pass early pension and health care reforms as current trends are unsustainable.

Commandment VI: You shall be fair. To be sustainable over time, the fiscal adjustment should be equitable.

Commandment VII: You shall implement wide reforms to boost potential growth.

Commandment VIII: You shall strengthen your fiscal institutions.

Commandment IX: You shall properly coordinate monetary and fiscal policy.

Commandment X: You shall coordinate your policies with other countries.

O Processo de Argentinização dos EUA

O modelo econômico argentino anda se espraiando no hemisfério norte: O problema central dos EUA agora é conter os crescentes endividamento público e tamanho do governo, bem como a crescente politização do Fed. Ed Lazear explica sua interpretação sobre a política fiscal americana, enquanto que Richard Fisher comenta sobre a pressão para submeter o Fed aos interesses do Congresso. Se história econômica puder nos ensinar alguma coisa, eu diria que esta trajetória, a ser mantida, não vai terminar bem.