O Futuro do Brasil

Em atenção a pedidos, minha palestra no encontro do Language of Liberty, em Porto Alegre.O gráfico abaixo mostra que não estamos convergindo (pelo menos rapidamente) para a renda per capita americana, enquanto que para a Argentina e Venezuela o que melhor descreve suas situações é "divergence, big time".

Qual é o Problema com Política Industrial?

É que decisões políticas definem política industrial, e não questões de eficiência econômica. Como explicam Acemoglu e Robinson:

"The problem is not thinking of situations in which industrial policy might be a good thing, of which there certainly are some. The problem is trying to identify the political situations in which industrial policy can actually be used to address these situations, and that is a much taller order."

Entrevista com Amartya Sen

Podem parecer obviedades, mas as ponderações de Amartya Sen são sempre relevantes para por os "pingos nos is" de certas discussões acadêmicas:


Do you think the focus on mathematics in current economics is the flip side of the neglect of the history of economic thought? 

I don’t think that there is any conflict between mathematical reasoning and being interested in the history of thought. Many of our early thinkers were quite mathematical. The connection between mathematics and economics is very strong, and there is no reason to be ashamed of it. What is to be avoided is to be concentrated only on mathematical economics. We must not neglect the insights that come from parts of the subject where mathematics is not sensible to use and different kinds of reasoning are useful. I don’t think the conflict is between mathematics and other kinds of methods. The conflict is between taking an integrated, broad, comprehensive view as opposed to a narrow view whether it is mathematical or anti-mathematical.

Novo Livro do Coase: Capitalismo na China

Está aqui. Em artigo no WSJ, ele e Ning Wang escrevem:

"The active exchange of thoughts and information also offers an indispensable foundation for social harmony. It is not a panacea; nothing can free us once and for all from ignorance and falsehood. But the free flow of ideas engenders repeated criticism and continuous improvement. It also cultivates respect and tolerance, which are effective antidotes to the bigotry and false doctrines that can threaten the foundation of any society.
When China started reforming itself more than three decades ago, Deng rightly stressed the "emancipation of the mind" as a prerequisite. But that has yet to happen. It's time for China to embrace not just the market, but the marketplace of ideas. This will help not just China reach its full potential, but the world as well."

Quem Ganha Com A Guerra às Drogas?